Shepherds Park · Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Birkenhead United vs Wellington Olympic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Birkenhead United and 2.28 for Wellington Olympic, a combined total of 4.40. That distribution gives Wellington Olympic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.5% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 2.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Birkenhead United home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wellington Olympic away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wellington Olympic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 37% / 20% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Birkenhead United and 2.28 for Wellington Olympic, a combined 4.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–16.3%
- 1–15.9%
- 2–35.4%
Recent form
Birkenhead United
- 2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Cashmere Technical · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-12-07T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Western Springs · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-11-29T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Wellington Phoenix II · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-11-23T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Miramar · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-11-15T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland United · 2-3 (L)
Wellington Olympic
- 2026-10-17T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastern Suburbs · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferrymead Bays · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland FC 2 · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-12-13T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Auckland City · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-10-26T02:00:00.000Z · Birkenhead United 2-4 Wellington Olympic (National League - National)
- 2024-11-02T00:30:00.000Z · Birkenhead United 2-1 Wellington Olympic (National League - National)
- 2022-10-22T01:00:00.000Z · Birkenhead United 0-2 Wellington Olympic (National League - National)
National League - National table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 12 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Miramar | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Birkenhead United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Auckland United | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 6 | Wellington Olympic | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Napier City Rovers | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 7 |
| 8 | Ferrymead Bays | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 9 | Eastern Suburbs | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 10 | Auckland FC 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 11 | Wellington Phoenix II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.