· Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
Birkirkara vs Sliema Wanderers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Birkirkara and 1.18 for Sliema Wanderers, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Birkirkara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.9% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Birkirkara home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sliema Wanderers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–07.7%
Recent form
Birkirkara
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Valletta FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zabbar St. Patrick · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hibernians · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sliema Wanderers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Mosta · 0-1 (L)
Sliema Wanderers
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gzira United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Balzan FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Mosta · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Birkirkara · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Birzebbuga · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · Birkirkara 1-2 Sliema Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2026-07-25T16:15:00.000Z · Birkirkara 2-3 Sliema Wanderers (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-04-14T16:00:00.000Z · Birkirkara 0-1 Sliema Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2026-02-17T20:00:00.000Z · Birkirkara 1-1 Sliema Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2025-11-23T17:15:00.000Z · Birkirkara 1-2 Sliema Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2025-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · Birkirkara 2-2 Sliema Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2025-05-04T16:00:00.000Z · Birkirkara 1-0 Sliema Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2025-04-13T11:45:00.000Z · Birkirkara 0-1 Sliema Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2025-03-30T12:00:00.000Z · Birkirkara 1-2 Sliema Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2024-12-07T13:15:00.000Z · Birkirkara 1-1 Sliema Wanderers (Premier League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.