· Analysis updated 07:13 UTC
Birmingham City W vs Sunderland W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Birmingham City W and 1.83 for Sunderland W, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Birmingham City W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.4% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Birmingham City W home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sunderland W away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.3%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–15.1%
Recent form
Birmingham City W
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Everton W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton Athletic W · 2-0 (W)
Sunderland W
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich Town W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle United W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Leicester City FC W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool W · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-01T18:00:00.000Z · Birmingham City W 1-0 Sunderland W (Women's Championship)
- 2025-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · Birmingham City W 1-1 Sunderland W (Women's Championship)
- 2025-02-02T14:00:00.000Z · Birmingham City W 1-0 Sunderland W (Women's Championship)
- 2024-09-08T13:00:00.000Z · Birmingham City W 5-0 Sunderland W (Women's Championship)
- 2023-12-17T14:00:00.000Z · Birmingham City W 3-0 Sunderland W (Women's Championship)
- 2023-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · Birmingham City W 1-1 Sunderland W (Women's Championship)
- 2023-01-22T14:00:00.000Z · Birmingham City W 1-3 Sunderland W (Women's Championship)
- 2022-08-27T15:00:00.000Z · Birmingham City W 4-0 Sunderland W (Women's Championship)
- 2022-01-30T13:00:00.000Z · Birmingham City W 2-1 Sunderland W (FA Women's Cup)
- 2020-02-16T14:00:00.000Z · Birmingham City W 1-0 Sunderland W (FA Women's Cup)
WSL Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester United W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 |
| 2 | Aston Villa W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Crystal Palace W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Liverpool W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | London City Lionesses W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | West Ham W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Brighton W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Everton W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Burnley W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Sunderland W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Wolverhampton W | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Bristol City W | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Ipswich Town W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Watford W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Leicester City FC W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | Southampton W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 19 | Sheffield United W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -9 | 1 |
| 20 | Birmingham City W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 21 | Newcastle United W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 22 | Durham W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 23 | Charlton Athletic W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.