· Analysis updated 04:09 UTC
Birmingham vs Bolton Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.14 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Birmingham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.
Model pick
Birmingham or Draw
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–110.6%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–18.1%
Why the model likes this
Bolton away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Birmingham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 28% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Birmingham and 1.14 for Bolton, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Recent form
Birmingham
Bolton
- 2026-08-15T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Preston · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Wednesday · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs NAC Breda · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-03-04T19:45:00.000Z · Birmingham 1-3 Bolton (League One)
- 2024-10-22T18:45:00.000Z · Birmingham 2-0 Bolton (League One)
- 2019-02-12T19:45:00.000Z · Birmingham 0-1 Bolton (Championship)
- 2018-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · Birmingham 0-1 Bolton (Championship)
- 2018-04-03T19:00:00.000Z · Birmingham 1-0 Bolton (Championship)
- 2017-08-15T18:45:00.000Z · Birmingham 0-0 Bolton (Championship)
- 2016-02-23T19:45:00.000Z · Birmingham 1-0 Bolton (Championship)
- 2015-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · Birmingham 1-0 Bolton (Championship)
- 2015-05-02T11:15:00.000Z · Birmingham 1-0 Bolton (Championship)
- 2014-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · Birmingham 0-1 Bolton (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.