St. Andrew's Stadium · Referee David Webb, England · Analysis updated 14:17 UTC
Birmingham vs Middlesbrough Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.22 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Middlesbrough the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Birmingham home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Middlesbrough away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.40 (model 52.3% vs market 38.9%, edge +13.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.40 | 38.9% | 52.3% | 1.91 | +13.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.57 | 60.1% | 61.8% | 1.62 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.8% | 28.0% | 3.57 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.40 | 38.2% | 38.2% | 2.62 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.70 | 34.0% | 33.8% | 2.96 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.6% | 72.0% | 1.39 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 67.4% | 66.2% | 1.51 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.53 | 61.1% | 47.7% | 2.10 | -13.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Birmingham
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs West Brom · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Norwich · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 2-2 (D)
Middlesbrough
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Norwich · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-02T20:00:00.000Z · Birmingham 1-3 Middlesbrough (Championship)
- 2025-11-08T15:00:00.000Z · Birmingham 1-2 Middlesbrough (Championship)
- 2024-03-12T19:45:00.000Z · Birmingham 0-1 Middlesbrough (Championship)
- 2023-10-21T14:00:00.000Z · Birmingham 0-1 Middlesbrough (Championship)
- 2023-01-02T15:00:00.000Z · Birmingham 1-3 Middlesbrough (Championship)
- 2022-10-05T18:45:00.000Z · Birmingham 0-1 Middlesbrough (Championship)
- 2022-03-15T19:45:00.000Z · Birmingham 0-2 Middlesbrough (Championship)
- 2021-10-30T14:00:00.000Z · Birmingham 2-0 Middlesbrough (Championship)
- 2021-01-16T12:30:00.000Z · Birmingham 1-0 Middlesbrough (Championship)
- 2020-12-19T15:00:00.000Z · Birmingham 1-4 Middlesbrough (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.