St. Andrew's Stadium · Referee Sam Allison · Analysis updated 18:42 UTC
Birmingham vs Preston Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Birmingham and 0.82 for Preston, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Birmingham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Birmingham win
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Birmingham home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Preston away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.4%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 52.3% vs market 47.3%, edge +5.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 52.3% | 1.91 | +5.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 84.0% | 84.7% | 1.18 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.33 | 21.0% | 21.4% | 4.67 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.4% | 78.6% | 1.27 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.44 | 63.3% | 63.3% | 1.58 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 5.80 | 15.7% | 15.3% | 6.54 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.50 | 37.6% | 36.7% | 2.72 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 47.7% | 2.10 | -5.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Birmingham
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs West Brom · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Norwich · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 2-2 (D)
Preston
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs QPR · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-22T18:45:00.000Z · Birmingham 2-1 Preston (Championship)
- 2025-10-21T18:45:00.000Z · Birmingham 1-0 Preston (Championship)
- 2024-04-01T14:00:00.000Z · Birmingham 1-0 Preston (Championship)
- 2023-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · Birmingham 1-2 Preston (Championship)
- 2023-01-21T15:00:00.000Z · Birmingham 1-2 Preston (Championship)
- 2022-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · Birmingham 1-0 Preston (Championship)
- 2022-01-15T15:00:00.000Z · Birmingham 1-1 Preston (Championship)
- 2021-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · Birmingham 0-0 Preston (Championship)
- 2021-01-20T19:45:00.000Z · Birmingham 0-1 Preston (Championship)
- 2020-10-31T15:00:00.000Z · Birmingham 2-1 Preston (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Birmingham win, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.