Birmingham vs Sheffield Utd Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.09 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Birmingham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Birmingham win

53.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.76 – 1.09

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Birmingham home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sheffield Utd away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Birmingham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 24% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Birmingham and 1.09 for Sheffield Utd, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Birmingham win53%

Draw24%

Sheffield Utd win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.1%
1–010.2%
2–19.8%
2–09.0%
0–16.3%

Recent form

Birmingham

2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Preston · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs West Brom · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Norwich · 1-2 (L)

Sheffield Utd

2026-10-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Portsmouth · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	10	7	2	1	9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	6	3	1	6	21
3	West Ham	10	5	4	1	17	19
4	Birmingham	10	4	5	1	6	17
5	QPR	10	4	5	1	6	17
6	West Brom	10	5	2	3	2	17
7	Southampton	10	6	2	2	11	16
8	Stoke City	10	5	1	4	1	16
9	Blackburn	10	4	3	3	2	15
10	Wolves	9	4	2	3	2	14
11	Millwall	10	4	2	4	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	-2	14
13	Charlton	10	3	5	2	-3	14
14	Bolton	10	4	1	5	-3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	3	3	4	0	12
16	Portsmouth	9	3	2	4	-1	11
17	Wrexham	10	2	5	3	-4	11
18	Lincoln	10	3	2	5	-10	11
19	Cardiff	10	2	4	4	1	10
20	Norwich	10	3	0	7	-3	9
21	Burnley	10	1	5	4	-4	8
22	Watford	10	2	2	6	-11	8
23	Derby	10	1	3	6	-10	6
24	Preston	10	1	1	8	-12	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Birmingham win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.