· Analysis updated 12:08 UTC
Birmingham vs Wrexham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.05 for Wrexham, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Birmingham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Birmingham win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Birmingham home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wrexham away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Birmingham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 23% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Birmingham and 1.05 for Wrexham, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.4%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Birmingham
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs QPR · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Preston · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs West Brom · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 2-2 (D)
Wrexham
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Preston · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs West Brom · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 25 |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 22 |
| 4 | Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 14 |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -2 | 12 |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Birmingham win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.