Victor Tedesco Stadium · Referee I. Barbara · Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Birzebbuga vs Hamrun Spartans Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Birzebbuga and 1.65 for Hamrun Spartans, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Hamrun Spartans the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hamrun Spartans win
58.3% probability
Expected goals
0.77 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Birzebbuga home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hamrun Spartans away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hamrun Spartans to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 17% / 24% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Birzebbuga and 1.65 for Hamrun Spartans, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.6%
- 0–212.0%
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Birzebbuga
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Valletta FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamrun Spartans · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Balzan FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sliema Wanderers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Zabbar St. Patrick · 0-1 (L)
Hamrun Spartans
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Floriana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Birkirkara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-17T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Mosta · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs NSI Runavik · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs NSI Runavik · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valletta FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Floriana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 14 |
| 3 | Marsaxlokk | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | Hamrun Spartans | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Mosta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Sliema Wanderers | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Balzan FC | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Birkirkara | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Hibernians | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 10 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hamrun Spartans win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.