· Analysis updated 13:45 UTC
Bisceglie vs Brindisi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Bisceglie and 1.12 for Brindisi, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Bisceglie the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bisceglie win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bisceglie home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brindisi away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bisceglie to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Bisceglie and 1.12 for Brindisi, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–08.2%
Recent form
Bisceglie
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Melfi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs USD Palmese · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-07T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Fidelis Andria · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Manfredonia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ischia · 3-1 (W)
Brindisi
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nardò · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nocerina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Normanna · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Francavilla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Turris · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martina Franca | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Turris | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Virtus Francavilla | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Bisceglie | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Brindisi | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Manfredonia | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Gravina | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 8 | Nocerina | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Real Normanna | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | USD Palmese | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Fidelis Andria | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Gladiator | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Ebolitana | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | Melfi | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Real Forio 2014 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Ischia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Francavilla | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Nardò | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bisceglie win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.