· Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Bishop's Stortford vs Bury Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Bishop's Stortford and 1.54 for Bury Town, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Bury Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bury Town win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.54
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bishop's Stortford home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bury Town away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bury Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 25% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Bishop's Stortford and 1.54 for Bury Town, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 46.1% vs market 42.7%, edge +3.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 42.7% | 46.1% | 2.17 | +3.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.75 | 53.4% | 54.0% | 1.85 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 3.10 | 28.5% | 28.7% | 3.48 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.2% | 25.3% | 3.95 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 74.8% | 1.34 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.91 | 46.3% | 46.1% | 2.17 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.30 | 71.9% | 71.4% | 1.40 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 57.3% | 53.9% | 1.86 | -3.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bishop's Stortford
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bury Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hanworth Villa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stamford · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leamington · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Berkhamsted · 2-3 (L)
Bury Town
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hitchin Town · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Real Bedford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stourbridge · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Needham Market · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alvechurch · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · Bishop's Stortford 1-2 Bury Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2026-03-07T15:00:00.000Z · Bishop's Stortford 0-2 Bury Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2025-11-22T15:00:00.000Z · Bishop's Stortford 0-0 Bury Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
Non League Premier - Southern Central table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 32 |
| 2 | Bury Town | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 31 |
| 3 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Rushall Olympic | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Needham Market | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 23 |
| 6 | Peterborough Sports | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 7 | Kettering Town | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 22 |
| 8 | Alvechurch | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 9 | Anstey Nomads | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 10 | Racing Club Warwick | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 11 | Halesowen Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Stourbridge | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Redditch United | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 14 | Hitchin Town | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Bishop's Stortford | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 16 | Banbury United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Leiston | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 18 | Stratford Town | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -8 | 12 |
| 19 | Leamington | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 20 | Worcester City | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 21 | Leighton Town | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -13 | 5 |
| 22 | Stamford | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -32 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bury Town win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.