· Analysis updated 12:28 UTC
Bishop's Stortford vs Stamford Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Bishop's Stortford and 1.04 for Stamford, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Bishop's Stortford the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bishop's Stortford win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bishop's Stortford home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stamford away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.5%
- 3–16.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.15 | 42.3% | 43.4% | 2.30 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.33 | 20.7% | 20.9% | 4.78 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.4% | 22.5% | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.70 | 55.3% | 55.4% | 1.81 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.10 | 44.7% | 44.6% | 2.24 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 77.8% | 77.4% | 1.29 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.57 | 57.0% | 56.5% | 1.77 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 79.9% | 79.0% | 1.27 | -0.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bishop's Stortford
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Bedford · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Needham Market · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club Warwick · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Redditch United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bury Town · 1-2 (L)
Stamford
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hitchin Town · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Bedford · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stratford Town · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Banbury United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Needham Market · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Bishop's Stortford 3-0 Stamford (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2026-03-28T15:00:00.000Z · Bishop's Stortford 0-1 Stamford (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2025-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · Bishop's Stortford 1-0 Stamford (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2025-04-05T14:00:00.000Z · Bishop's Stortford 0-1 Stamford (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2024-08-24T14:00:00.000Z · Bishop's Stortford 2-2 Stamford (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
Non League Premier - Southern Central table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 32 |
| 2 | Bury Town | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 31 |
| 3 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Rushall Olympic | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Needham Market | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 23 |
| 6 | Peterborough Sports | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 7 | Kettering Town | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 22 |
| 8 | Alvechurch | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 9 | Anstey Nomads | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 10 | Racing Club Warwick | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 11 | Halesowen Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Stourbridge | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Redditch United | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 14 | Hitchin Town | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Bishop's Stortford | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 16 | Banbury United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Leiston | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 18 | Stratford Town | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -8 | 12 |
| 19 | Leamington | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 20 | Worcester City | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 21 | Leighton Town | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -13 | 5 |
| 22 | Stamford | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -32 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bishop's Stortford win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.