· Analysis updated 16:40 UTC
Bistrica vs Bilje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Bistrica and 1.53 for Bilje, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives Bistrica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bistrica win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bistrica home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bilje away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bistrica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 22% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Bistrica and 1.53 for Bilje, a combined 3.39 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.3%
Recent form
Bistrica
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tabor Sežana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Dravinja · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brežice · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Triglav · 0-1 (L)
Bilje
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Krško · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Jesenice · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Primorje · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Ljubljana · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudar · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bistrica win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.