Bistrica vs Ilirija Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Bistrica and 1.52 for Ilirija, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Ilirija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.27 – 1.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bistrica home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ilirija away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ilirija to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 32% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Bistrica and 1.52 for Ilirija, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bistrica win32%

Draw25%

Ilirija win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.9%
0–19.4%
1–29.0%
1–07.8%
2–17.5%

Recent form

Bistrica

2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudar · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tabor Sežana · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Dravinja · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brežice · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Triglav · 0-1 (L)

Ilirija

2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Krško · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jesenice · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Primorje · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Ljubljana · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudar · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. SNL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tabor Sežana	10	8	1	1	14	25
2	Beltinci	10	7	1	2	16	22
3	Triglav	10	7	1	2	15	22
4	Jesenice	10	5	2	3	4	17
5	Slovan Ljubljana	10	5	2	3	-2	17
6	Ilirija	10	5	1	4	6	16
7	Rudar	10	5	0	5	2	15
8	Bilje	10	5	0	5	-4	15
9	Dekani	10	4	3	3	1	15
10	Bistrica	10	4	2	4	-2	14
11	Dren Vrhnika	10	4	2	4	-3	14
12	Primorje	10	2	4	4	-5	10
13	Krško	10	2	3	5	-9	9
14	Krka	10	2	1	7	-8	7
15	Dravinja	10	1	2	7	-15	5
16	Brežice	10	0	3	7	-10	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.