· Analysis updated 17:43 UTC
Bistrica vs Krško Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Bistrica and 1.33 for Krško, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Krško the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.7% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bistrica home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Krško away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Krško to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 36% / 26% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Bistrica and 1.33 for Krško, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Bistrica
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tabor Sežana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Dravinja · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brežice · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Triglav · 0-1 (L)
Krško
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dekani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tabor Sežana · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Jesenice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Primorje · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorica · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Beltinci | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Triglav | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 25 |
| 4 | Rudar | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Bilje | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 6 | Jesenice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Bistrica | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 8 | Slovan Ljubljana | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 | Ilirija | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | Dekani | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Dren Vrhnika | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Primorje | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Krško | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 9 |
| 14 | Dravinja | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 15 | Krka | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 16 | Brežice | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.