· Analysis updated 15:27 UTC
Bjelovar vs Uljanik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.47 expected goals for Bjelovar and 1.69 for Uljanik, a combined total of 4.16. That distribution gives Bjelovar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bjelovar win
54.9% probability
Expected goals
2.47 – 1.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bjelovar home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Uljanik away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–16.5%
- 3–25.6%
Recent form
Bjelovar
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Zapresic · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Varteks Varaždin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uskok Klis · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlovac 1919 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Grobničan Čavle · 4-0 (W)
Uljanik
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slavonija Požega · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagora · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Lucko · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dugo Selo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Solin · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · Bjelovar 3-4 Uljanik (Second NL)
- 2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · Bjelovar 0-1 Uljanik (Second NL)
- 2025-08-27T14:30:00.000Z · Bjelovar 0-2 Uljanik (Cup)
- 2025-03-22T14:30:00.000Z · Bjelovar 2-0 Uljanik (Second NL)
- 2024-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Bjelovar 0-0 Uljanik (Second NL)
Second NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dugo Selo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Uskok Klis | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | Bjelovar | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Uljanik | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Jarun | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Trnje | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Solin | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Zagora | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Križevci | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Slavonija Požega | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Inter Zapresic | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Lucko | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Grobničan Čavle | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Koprivnica | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | Varteks Varaždin | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bjelovar win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.