Nordic Wellness Arena · Referee Sars Joakim · Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for BK Hacken and 0.92 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives BK Hacken the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
BK Hacken win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BK Hacken home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Degerfors IF away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.4%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.4%
Recent form
BK Hacken
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Orgryte IS · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Elfsborg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalmar FF · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjallby AIF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gais · 0-0 (D)
Degerfors IF
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mjallby AIF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs IK brage · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hammarby FF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:20:00.000Z · A vs Sirius · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Halmstad · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T13:00:00.000Z · BK Hacken 1-1 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2025-08-10T12:00:00.000Z · BK Hacken 0-0 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2025-04-23T17:00:00.000Z · BK Hacken 3-4 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2023-09-03T13:00:00.000Z · BK Hacken 0-1 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2023-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · BK Hacken 6-1 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2022-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · BK Hacken 2-2 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2022-04-09T15:30:00.000Z · BK Hacken 2-1 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2021-11-07T14:00:00.000Z · BK Hacken 2-0 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
- 2021-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · BK Hacken 0-3 Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan)
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 54 |
| 2 | Djurgardens IF | 23 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 44 |
| 3 | Hammarby FF | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 43 |
| 4 | IF Elfsborg | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 40 |
| 5 | BK Hacken | 23 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 39 |
| 6 | Malmo FF | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 36 |
| 7 | Vasteras SK FK | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | -2 | 35 |
| 8 | IFK Goteborg | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | -9 | 35 |
| 9 | AIK Stockholm | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | -4 | 33 |
| 10 | Gais | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 30 |
| 11 | IF Brommapojkarna | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 30 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | -11 | 23 |
| 13 | Degerfors IF | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -15 | 20 |
| 14 | Kalmar FF | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -16 | 19 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 23 | 3 | 6 | 14 | -27 | 15 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -28 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is BK Hacken win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.