Nordic Wellness Arena · Referee Adi Aganovic, Sweden · Analysis updated 14:57 UTC
BK Hacken vs Halmstad Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.46 expected goals for BK Hacken and 0.70 for Halmstad, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives BK Hacken the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
BK Hacken win
76.1% probability
Expected goals
2.46 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BK Hacken home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Halmstad away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BK Hacken to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 15% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.46 goals for BK Hacken and 0.70 for Halmstad, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.9%
- 3–010.6%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.0%
- 3–17.4%
Recent form
BK Hacken
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Orgryte IS · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Elfsborg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalmar FF · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjallby AIF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gais · 0-0 (D)
Halmstad
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Osters IF · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs AIK Stockholm · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs IFK Goteborg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Degerfors IF · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kalmar FF · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 54 |
| 2 | Djurgardens IF | 23 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 44 |
| 3 | Hammarby FF | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 43 |
| 4 | IF Elfsborg | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 40 |
| 5 | BK Hacken | 23 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 39 |
| 6 | Malmo FF | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 36 |
| 7 | Vasteras SK FK | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | -2 | 35 |
| 8 | IFK Goteborg | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | -9 | 35 |
| 9 | AIK Stockholm | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | -4 | 33 |
| 10 | Gais | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 30 |
| 11 | IF Brommapojkarna | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 30 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | -11 | 23 |
| 13 | Degerfors IF | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -15 | 20 |
| 14 | Kalmar FF | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -16 | 19 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 23 | 3 | 6 | 14 | -27 | 15 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -28 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is BK Hacken win, at 76.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.