BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.25 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives BK Hacken the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

BK Hacken home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
IF Elfsborg away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BK Hacken to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for BK Hacken and 1.25 for IF Elfsborg, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

BK Hacken win42%

Draw26%

IF Elfsborg win33%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–09.7%
2–18.8%
0–18.4%
1–27.6%

Recent form

BK Hacken

2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Orgryte IS · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Elfsborg · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalmar FF · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjallby AIF · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gais · 0-0 (D)

IF Elfsborg

2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Djurgardens IF · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalmar FF · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs IF Brommapojkarna · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Degerfors IF · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Goteborg · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Allsvenskan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sirius	23	17	3	3	25	54
2	Djurgardens IF	23	14	2	7	27	44
3	Hammarby FF	23	13	4	6	28	43
4	IF Elfsborg	23	11	7	5	13	40
5	BK Hacken	23	10	9	4	12	39
6	Malmo FF	23	11	3	9	5	36
7	Vasteras SK FK	23	10	5	8	-2	35
8	IFK Goteborg	23	10	5	8	-9	35
9	AIK Stockholm	23	9	6	8	-4	33
10	Gais	23	8	6	9	7	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	23	8	6	9	-5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	23	5	8	10	-11	23
13	Degerfors IF	23	5	5	13	-15	20
14	Kalmar FF	23	5	4	14	-16	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	3	6	14	-27	15
16	Halmstad	23	3	5	15	-28	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.