· Analysis updated 10:51 UTC
BKV Előre vs Gyulai Termál Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.61 expected goals for BKV Előre and 2.29 for Gyulai Termál, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Gyulai Termál the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gyulai Termál win
75.4% probability
Expected goals
0.61 – 2.29
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BKV Előre home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gyulai Termál away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gyulai Termál to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 8% / 16% / 75% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.61 goals for BKV Előre and 2.29 for Gyulai Termál, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–214.4%
- 0–112.6%
- 0–311.0%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–17.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 59.0% vs market 49.3%, edge +9.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 49.3% | 59.0% | 1.69 | +9.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 4.00 | 23.7% | 24.6% | 4.07 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.04 | 91.0% | 91.7% | 1.09 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 11.00 | 8.2% | 8.3% | 12.05 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.20 | 75.3% | 75.4% | 1.33 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.50 | 16.4% | 16.3% | 6.13 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.11 | 85.3% | 83.7% | 1.19 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 50.7% | 41.0% | 2.44 | -9.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
BKV Előre
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dabas · 5-4 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Szeged-Csanád II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasas II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bekescsaba 1912 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sándorfalva · 1-0 (W)
Gyulai Termál
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Szolnoki MAV FC · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Honvéd II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Szegedi VSE · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Szentlőrinc SE · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dabas · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyulai Termál | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 39 |
| 2 | ESMTK | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 27 |
| 3 | III. Kerületi TUE | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 26 |
| 4 | Szeged-Csanád II | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Csepel | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | Vasas II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Újpest II | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 19 |
| 8 | Monori Se | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 | Dabas | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 15 |
| 10 | Bekescsaba 1912 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Szolnoki MAV FC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 | Honvéd II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Sándorfalva | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 11 |
| 14 | Hódmezővásárhely | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | -12 | 9 |
| 15 | BKV Előre | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -28 | 8 |
| 16 | Szegedi VSE | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -21 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gyulai Termál win, at 75.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.