· Analysis updated 00:02 UTC
Black Bulls Maputo vs Rayon Sports Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Black Bulls Maputo and 0.92 for Rayon Sports, a combined total of 2.14. That distribution gives Black Bulls Maputo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.2% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Black Bulls Maputo home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Black Bulls Maputo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 29% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Black Bulls Maputo and 0.92 for Rayon Sports, a combined 2.14 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.3%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–011.7%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–08.8%
Recent form
Black Bulls Maputo
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayon Sports · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Atomic Ngome · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Atomic Ngome · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rivers United · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rivers United · 1-0 (W)
Rayon Sports
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Black Bulls Maputo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Black Bulls Maputo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorilla · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Sunrise · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Panthère · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · Black Bulls Maputo 2-0 Rayon Sports (CAF Confederation Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.