· Analysis updated 18:11 UTC
Black Stars vs Concordia Basel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Black Stars and 1.59 for Concordia Basel, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Concordia Basel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Concordia Basel win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.59
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Black Stars home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Concordia Basel away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Concordia Basel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 30% / 25% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Black Stars and 1.59 for Concordia Basel, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–27.5%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
Black Stars
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zug · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dietikon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Solothurn · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Muttenz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bassecourt · 1-1 (D)
Concordia Basel
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshopper II · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Muri-Gümligen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zug · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Solothurn · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Muttenz · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Classic - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Langenthal | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Courtételle | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Schötz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Muttenz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Solothurn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | Delémont | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Concordia Basel | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Buochs | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Muri-Gümligen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 10 | Grasshopper II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Zug | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 12 | Bassecourt | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | Thun II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | FC Wohlen | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 | Black Stars | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Münsingen | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Concordia Basel win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.