· Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
Black Stars vs Thun II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Black Stars and 1.13 for Thun II, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Black Stars the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Black Stars win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Black Stars home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thun II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Black Stars to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Black Stars and 1.13 for Thun II, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Black Stars
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Solothurn · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Muttenz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bassecourt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Schötz · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Thun II · 2-2 (D)
Thun II
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Muttenz · 5-6 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bassecourt · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Schötz · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Wohlen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Black Stars · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Classic - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Langenthal | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Schötz | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Courtételle | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Concordia Basel | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Delémont | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Muttenz | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Solothurn | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
| 8 | Grasshopper II | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 | Buochs | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Muri-Gümligen | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Thun II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | FC Wohlen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Bassecourt | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 10 |
| 14 | Zug | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 | Black Stars | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Münsingen | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Black Stars win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.