Ewood Park · Referee Tom Nield · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Blackburn vs Cardiff Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.20 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Cardiff the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Blackburn home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cardiff away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–27.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.40 (model 52.2% vs market 38.9%, edge +13.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.40 | 38.9% | 52.2% | 1.92 | +13.3 |
| Match result | Away | 2.50 | 36.8% | 37.2% | 2.69 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 62.6% | 62.8% | 1.59 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.9% | 28.0% | 3.57 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 65.2% | 65.2% | 1.53 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.2% | 72.0% | 1.39 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.60 | 35.4% | 34.8% | 2.87 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.53 | 61.1% | 47.8% | 2.09 | -13.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Blackburn
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Portsmouth · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Preston · 1-2 (L)
Cardiff
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlton · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stoke City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Portsmouth · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · Blackburn 1-2 Cardiff (Championship)
- 2024-11-09T12:30:00.000Z · Blackburn 3-1 Cardiff (Championship)
- 2024-02-20T19:45:00.000Z · Blackburn 0-0 Cardiff (Championship)
- 2023-10-21T14:00:00.000Z · Blackburn 1-0 Cardiff (Championship)
- 2023-09-27T18:45:00.000Z · Blackburn 5-2 Cardiff (League Cup)
- 2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z · Blackburn 1-0 Cardiff (Championship)
- 2022-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · Blackburn 0-1 Cardiff (Championship)
- 2022-01-15T12:30:00.000Z · Blackburn 1-0 Cardiff (Championship)
- 2021-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · Blackburn 5-1 Cardiff (Championship)
- 2021-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · Blackburn 2-2 Cardiff (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.