· Analysis updated 13:46 UTC
Blacks Power vs NEC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Blacks Power and 1.27 for NEC, a combined total of 2.24. That distribution gives NEC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.7% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Blacks Power home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
NEC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NEC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 28% / 28% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Blacks Power and 1.27 for NEC, a combined 2.24 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–010.6%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–28.6%
Recent form
Blacks Power
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mbarara City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vipers · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs BUL · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maroons · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Police · 1-0 (W)
NEC
- 2026-10-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Express · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs URA · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mbarara City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lugazi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs KCCA · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | NEC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | SC Villa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Blacks Power | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Police | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Entebbe UPPC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Lugazi | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 8 | UPDF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Express | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | KCCA | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 | Vipers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Maroons | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | URA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Kitara | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Mbarara City | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | Kataka | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 17 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | Ntugasaze | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.