Blacktown City vs UNSW Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Blacktown City and 1.32 for UNSW, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Blacktown City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Blacktown City win

47.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.32

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Blacktown City home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UNSW away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Blacktown City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 23% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Blacktown City and 1.32 for UNSW, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Blacktown City win48%

Draw23%

UNSW win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.7%
2–19.4%
1–08.1%
1–27.1%
2–07.1%

Recent form

Blacktown City

2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Western Sydney Wanderers U23 · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-22T08:30:00.000Z · A vs St. George Saints · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-16T05:00:00.000Z · H vs UNSW · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T07:30:00.000Z · A vs NWS Spirit · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-02T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Sydney FC U23 · 4-2 (W)

UNSW

2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Rockdale City Suns · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-22T07:15:00.000Z · H vs Manly United · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-16T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Blacktown City · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T05:30:00.000Z · H vs Sydney Olympic · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Western Sydney Wanderers U23 · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

New South Wales NPL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	APIA Leichhardt Tigers	30	21	5	4	31	68
2	Sydney United	30	20	4	6	27	64
3	Marconi Stallions	30	19	5	6	28	62
4	Sutherland Sharks	30	14	4	12	8	46
5	Manly United	30	12	8	10	4	44
6	Rockdale City Suns	30	13	4	13	6	43
7	NWS Spirit	30	12	5	13	-1	41
8	SD Raiders	30	12	5	13	-5	41
9	Sydney FC U23	30	11	8	11	-5	41
10	Western Sydney Wanderers U23	30	11	5	14	6	38
11	Wollongong Wolves	30	11	5	14	-8	38
12	St George City FA	30	10	7	13	-16	37
13	Blacktown City	30	8	8	14	-7	32
14	UNSW	30	9	5	16	-11	32
15	St. George Saints	30	8	3	19	-27	27
16	Sydney Olympic	30	6	5	19	-30	23

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Blacktown City win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.