· Analysis updated 10:45 UTC
Blacktown Spartans vs Inter Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for Blacktown Spartans and 1.30 for Inter Lions, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Blacktown Spartans the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Blacktown Spartans win
64.9% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Blacktown Spartans home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Inter Lions away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–06.9%
- 3–05.9%
Recent form
Blacktown Spartans
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Bulls Academy · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-21T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Hurstville FC · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Macarthur Rams · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Inter Lions · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Prospect United · 2-1 (W)
Inter Lions
- 2026-08-29T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Hakoah Sydney City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Dulwich Hill · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Bankstown City Lions · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Blacktown Spartans · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-02T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Coast II · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-07T10:15:00.000Z · Blacktown Spartans 4-0 Inter Lions (New South Wales NPL 2)
- 2026-04-25T07:00:00.000Z · Blacktown Spartans 2-1 Inter Lions (New South Wales NPL 2)
- 2025-08-01T10:15:00.000Z · Blacktown Spartans 1-3 Inter Lions (New South Wales NPL 2)
- 2025-04-19T09:00:00.000Z · Blacktown Spartans 0-1 Inter Lions (New South Wales NPL 2)
- 2024-08-24T09:00:00.000Z · Blacktown Spartans 3-2 Inter Lions (New South Wales NPL 2)
- 2024-05-18T09:00:00.000Z · Blacktown Spartans 3-2 Inter Lions (New South Wales NPL 2)
- 2023-08-05T09:00:00.000Z · Blacktown Spartans 1-2 Inter Lions (New South Wales NPL 2)
- 2023-04-22T09:00:00.000Z · Blacktown Spartans 1-2 Inter Lions (New South Wales NPL 2)
New South Wales NPL 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blacktown Spartans | 30 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 43 | 69 |
| 2 | Northern Tigers | 30 | 17 | 8 | 5 | 25 | 59 |
| 3 | Bankstown City Lions | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 56 |
| 4 | Canterbury Bankstown | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 51 |
| 5 | Hills Brumbies | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 49 |
| 6 | Macarthur Rams | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 48 |
| 7 | Hakoah Sydney City | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 43 |
| 8 | Rydalmere Lions | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 41 |
| 9 | Bulls Academy | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 38 |
| 10 | Inter Lions | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -15 | 35 |
| 11 | Hurstville FC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -13 | 33 |
| 12 | Central Coast II | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | -21 | 31 |
| 13 | Dulwich Hill | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | -18 | 30 |
| 14 | Newcastle Jets II | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | -18 | 29 |
| 15 | Prospect United | 30 | 4 | 14 | 12 | -19 | 26 |
| 16 | Mt Druitt Town | 30 | 6 | 5 | 19 | -34 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Blacktown Spartans win, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.