Soyu Stadium · Analysis updated 06:44 UTC
Blaublitz Akita vs Kagoshima United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Blaublitz Akita and 0.81 for Kagoshima United, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Blaublitz Akita the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.1% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 0.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Blaublitz Akita home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kagoshima United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Blaublitz Akita to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 32% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Blaublitz Akita and 0.81 for Kagoshima United, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.3%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.8%
- 2–08.5%
Recent form
Blaublitz Akita
- 2026-10-11T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Iwaki · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Sagan Tosu · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Albirex Niigata · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Shonan Bellmare · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Tokushima Vortis · 4-1 (W)
Kagoshima United
- 2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Osaka · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kochi United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ehime FC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerezo Osaka · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J2/J3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 43 |
| 2 | Blaublitz Akita | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 35 |
| 3 | Shonan Bellmare | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 31 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 29 |
| 5 | Sagamihara | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | -2 | 28 |
| 6 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 23 |
| 7 | Montedio Yamagata | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -5 | 22 |
| 8 | Tochigi City | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -13 | 21 |
| 9 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -4 | 20 |
| 10 | Tochigi SC | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -5 | 18 |
| 1 | Ventforet Kofu | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 35 |
| 2 | Consadole Sapporo | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 31 |
| 3 | Iwaki | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 31 |
| 4 | Omiya Ardija | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 30 |
| 5 | Fujieda MYFC | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 30 |
| 6 | FC Gifu | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 28 |
| 7 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 26 |
| 8 | Jubilo Iwata | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -7 | 25 |
| 9 | Fukushima United | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -13 | 18 |
| 10 | Parceiro Nagano | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -18 | 16 |
| 1 | Kataller Toyama | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 38 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 35 |
| 3 | Tokushima Vortis | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 32 |
| 4 | Kochi United | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | Ehime FC | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| 6 | Kanazawa | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | -6 | 27 |
| 7 | Nara Club | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -9 | 21 |
| 8 | Osaka | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | -3 | 20 |
| 9 | Imabari | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 10 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 19 |
| 1 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 47 |
| 2 | Kagoshima United | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 33 |
| 3 | Sagan Tosu | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 32 |
| 4 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 29 |
| 5 | Roasso Kumamoto | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 27 |
| 6 | Gainare Tottori | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | -4 | 27 |
| 7 | Oita Trinita | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Biwako Shiga | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -13 | 21 |
| 9 | FC Ryukyu | 18 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -12 | 17 |
| 10 | Kitakyushu | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -15 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.