Soyu Stadium · Referee N. Uehara · Analysis updated 08:00 UTC
Blaublitz Akita vs Tokushima Vortis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Blaublitz Akita and 0.90 for Tokushima Vortis, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Blaublitz Akita the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.5% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Blaublitz Akita home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tokushima Vortis away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–08.5%
Recent form
Blaublitz Akita
- 2026-10-11T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Iwaki · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Sagan Tosu · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Albirex Niigata · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Shonan Bellmare · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Tokushima Vortis · 4-1 (W)
Tokushima Vortis
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Imabari · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Albirex Niigata · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi City · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Gamba Osaka · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ventforet Kofu · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · Blaublitz Akita 4-1 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
- 2025-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · Blaublitz Akita 1-1 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
- 2025-04-29T05:03:00.000Z · Blaublitz Akita 0-2 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
- 2024-09-29T05:00:00.000Z · Blaublitz Akita 2-0 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
- 2024-03-09T05:00:00.000Z · Blaublitz Akita 2-1 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
- 2023-11-12T04:00:00.000Z · Blaublitz Akita 1-1 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
- 2023-03-25T05:00:00.000Z · Blaublitz Akita 0-0 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
- 2022-09-10T09:30:00.000Z · Blaublitz Akita 0-0 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
- 2022-03-23T10:00:00.000Z · Blaublitz Akita 0-0 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
J2 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 23 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Omiya Ardija | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 6 | Shonan Bellmare | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Oita Trinita | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 8 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 9 | Tokushima Vortis | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 10 | Iwaki | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 11 | Fujieda MYFC | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Jubilo Iwata | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 13 | Sagan Tosu | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Consadole Sapporo | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 16 | Montedio Yamagata | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 13 |
| 17 | Blaublitz Akita | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 12 |
| 19 | Imabari | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.