Bleiburg vs Ferlach Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Bleiburg and 0.82 for Ferlach, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Bleiburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bleiburg win

68.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 0.82

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ferlach away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bleiburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 19% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Bleiburg and 0.82 for Ferlach, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 50%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Bleiburg win68%

Draw19%

Ferlach win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

2–011.8%
1–010.9%
2–19.7%
1–18.9%
3–08.6%

Recent form

Bleiburg

Ferlach

2026-06-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria Klagenfurt II · 1-4 (L)
2026-05-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Veit / Glan · 4-3 (W)
2026-05-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Grafenstein · 0-5 (L)
2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nußdorf · 4-2 (W)
2026-05-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Bleiburg · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Landesliga - Karnten table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Donau Klagenfurt	28	16	7	5	27	55
2	Wolfsberg	28	16	5	7	28	53
3	Lendorf	28	16	5	7	16	53
4	Völkermarkt	28	16	4	8	24	52
5	Bleiburg	29	14	6	9	6	48
6	St. Veit / Glan	28	12	6	10	9	42
7	Dellach im Gailtal	28	11	7	10	7	40
8	Grafenstein	28	11	7	10	5	40
9	TSU Matrei	29	11	5	13	-2	38
10	Austria Klagenfurt II	29	9	10	10	-5	37
11	SAK Klagenfurt	28	8	10	10	2	34
12	Köttmannsdorf	29	8	7	14	-12	31
13	KAC	28	6	11	11	-9	29
14	Spittal	28	6	8	14	-25	26
15	Ferlach	28	6	8	14	-34	26
16	Nußdorf	28	6	2	20	-37	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bleiburg win, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.