· Analysis updated 16:33 UTC
Blejoi vs Flacăra Moreni Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Blejoi and 2.31 for Flacăra Moreni, a combined total of 3.51. That distribution gives Flacăra Moreni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Flacăra Moreni win
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 2.31
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Blejoi home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flacăra Moreni to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 19% / 19% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Blejoi and 2.31 for Flacăra Moreni, a combined 3.51 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.6%
- 1–18.3%
- 0–27.9%
- 1–37.4%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Blejoi
- 2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Viitorul Corbeanca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tunari · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Păuleşti · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Urban Titu · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Berca · 6-1 (W)
Flacăra Moreni
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flacăra Moreni | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 28 |
| 2 | Tunari | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Blejoi | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Berca | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Voința Crevedia | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Progresul Draganesti | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -7 | 13 |
| 7 | Pucioasa | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Urban Titu | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | Râmnicu Sărat | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 12 |
| 10 | Plopeni | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 11 | Viitorul Corbeanca | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Păuleşti | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Flacăra Moreni win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.