· Analysis updated 06:27 UTC
Blejoi vs Păuleşti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Blejoi and 0.92 for Păuleşti, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Blejoi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Blejoi win
66.8% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Blejoi home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Păuleşti away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.5%
- 1–18.8%
- 3–07.9%
Recent form
Blejoi
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tunari · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Păuleşti · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Urban Titu · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Berca · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Plopeni · 3-0 (W)
Păuleşti
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Draganesti · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Viitorul Corbeanca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tunari · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Flacăra Moreni · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Urban Titu · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · Blejoi 2-6 Păuleşti (Cupa României)
- 2025-12-13T12:00:00.000Z · Blejoi 0-0 Păuleşti (Liga III - Serie 2)
- 2025-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Blejoi 2-0 Păuleşti (Liga III - Serie 2)
- 2024-11-01T12:00:00.000Z · Blejoi 6-2 Păuleşti (Liga III - Serie 5)
- 2024-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · Blejoi 1-0 Păuleşti (Liga III - Serie 5)
- 2023-10-28T12:00:00.000Z · Blejoi 5-3 Păuleşti (Liga III - Serie 4)
- 2023-08-26T15:00:00.000Z · Blejoi 3-2 Păuleşti (Liga III - Serie 4)
- 2022-11-19T12:00:00.000Z · Blejoi 6-2 Păuleşti (Liga III - Serie 5)
- 2022-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · Blejoi 5-0 Păuleşti (Liga III - Serie 5)
Liga III - Serie 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flacăra Moreni | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 25 |
| 2 | Tunari | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 3 | Blejoi | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Berca | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Voința Crevedia | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Progresul Draganesti | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Urban Titu | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 8 | Plopeni | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 10 |
| 9 | Pucioasa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Râmnicu Sărat | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 9 |
| 11 | Viitorul Corbeanca | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 12 | Păuleşti | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Blejoi win, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.