Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas · Referee R. Mamani · Analysis updated 14:35 UTC
Blooming vs Real Oruro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Blooming and 1.15 for Real Oruro, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Blooming the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Blooming win
56.0% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Blooming home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Oruro away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Blooming to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 22% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Blooming and 1.15 for Real Oruro, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Blooming
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Petrolero · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T21:15:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Oriente Petrolero · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitario de Vinto · 1-1 (D)
Real Oruro
- 2026-10-03T21:15:00.000Z · A vs Nacional Potosí · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Always Ready · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Tomayapo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Potosí · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolívar | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 51 |
| 2 | Always Ready | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 35 | 48 |
| 3 | The Strongest | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 45 |
| 4 | Real Potosí | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 15 | 38 |
| 5 | Oriente Petrolero | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 34 |
| 6 | Aurora | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 |
| 7 | Guabirá | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -10 | 30 |
| 8 | Blooming | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 28 |
| 9 | Nacional Potosí | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 28 |
| 10 | Real Oruro | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Independiente Petrolero | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -10 | 26 |
| 12 | Universitario de Vinto | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -14 | 21 |
| 13 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -20 | 21 |
| 14 | ABB | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -16 | 20 |
| 15 | Real Tomayapo | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -23 | 20 |
| 16 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -14 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Blooming win, at 56.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.