Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas · Referee A. Flores · Analysis updated 04:57 UTC
Blooming vs Universitario de Vinto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Blooming and 0.78 for Universitario de Vinto, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Blooming the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Blooming win
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Blooming home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Universitario de Vinto away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–07.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.38 (model 53.8% vs market 39.1%, edge +14.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.38 | 39.1% | 53.8% | 1.86 | +14.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.70 | 35.1% | 35.7% | 2.80 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.40 | 63.8% | 64.3% | 1.56 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 21.3% | 21.2% | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.9% | 78.8% | 1.27 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 6.00 | 14.9% | 14.5% | 6.90 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.10 | 86.1% | 85.5% | 1.17 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.53 | 60.9% | 46.2% | 2.16 | -14.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Blooming
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Petrolero · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T21:15:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Oriente Petrolero · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitario de Vinto · 1-1 (D)
Universitario de Vinto
- 2026-10-17T21:15:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Oruro · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Oriente Petrolero · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · A vs The Strongest · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guabirá · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z · Blooming 1-1 Universitario de Vinto (Primera División)
- 2025-11-16T19:00:00.000Z · Blooming 3-1 Universitario de Vinto (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2025-11-13T23:00:00.000Z · Blooming 0-0 Universitario de Vinto (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2025-08-24T19:00:00.000Z · Blooming 1-0 Universitario de Vinto (Primera División)
- 2025-04-12T19:00:00.000Z · Blooming 2-1 Universitario de Vinto (Primera División)
- 2024-11-27T00:30:00.000Z · Blooming 1-0 Universitario de Vinto (Primera División)
- 2024-08-01T19:00:00.000Z · Blooming 0-1 Universitario de Vinto (Primera División)
- 2023-10-28T19:00:00.000Z · Blooming 1-2 Universitario de Vinto (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2023-07-24T22:00:00.000Z · Blooming 0-1 Universitario de Vinto (Primera División)
- 2023-07-13T00:00:00.000Z · Blooming 2-1 Universitario de Vinto (Copa de la División Profesional)
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Always Ready | 23 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 39 | 51 |
| 2 | Bolívar | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 51 |
| 3 | The Strongest | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 45 |
| 4 | Real Potosí | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 38 |
| 5 | Oriente Petrolero | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 37 |
| 6 | Aurora | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 34 |
| 7 | Guabirá | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -10 | 30 |
| 8 | Independiente Petrolero | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | -8 | 29 |
| 9 | Blooming | 23 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 28 |
| 10 | Nacional Potosí | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 28 |
| 11 | Real Oruro | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | -19 | 27 |
| 12 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | -19 | 24 |
| 13 | Universitario de Vinto | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -14 | 21 |
| 14 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -13 | 20 |
| 15 | ABB | 23 | 6 | 2 | 15 | -18 | 20 |
| 16 | Real Tomayapo | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -24 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Blooming win, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.