Doha Stadium · Referee D. Fuxman · Analysis updated 15:07 UTC
Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Petah Tikva Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Bnei Sakhnin and 1.20 for Hapoel Petah Tikva, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Bnei Sakhnin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bnei Sakhnin home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hapoel Petah Tikva away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bnei Sakhnin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Bnei Sakhnin and 1.20 for Hapoel Petah Tikva, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Bnei Sakhnin
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Ramat Gan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Haifa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Beitar Jerusalem · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Netanya · 0-0 (D)
Hapoel Petah Tikva
- 2026-10-17T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Sakhnin · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Netanya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Haifa · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Toto Cup Ligat Al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hapoel Haifa | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Hapoel Katamon | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 8 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 12 | Ironi Tiberias | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 13 | Beitar Jerusalem | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.