Doha Stadium · Analysis updated 02:41 UTC
Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Ramat Gan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Bnei Sakhnin and 1.20 for Hapoel Ramat Gan, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Bnei Sakhnin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bnei Sakhnin home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hapoel Ramat Gan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bnei Sakhnin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Bnei Sakhnin and 1.20 for Hapoel Ramat Gan, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–19.9%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 2.00 | 46.4% | 49.2% | 2.03 | +2.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.0% | 73.0% | 1.37 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 38.7% | 38.9% | 2.57 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.0% | 27.0% | 3.70 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.53 | 61.2% | 61.1% | 1.64 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.60 | 34.3% | 34.1% | 2.93 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 66.8% | 65.9% | 1.52 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 53.6% | 50.8% | 1.97 | -2.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bnei Sakhnin
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Ramat Gan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Haifa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Beitar Jerusalem · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Netanya · 0-0 (D)
Hapoel Ramat Gan
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Haifa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Beitar Jerusalem · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Sakhnin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Netanya · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · Bnei Sakhnin 1-0 Hapoel Ramat Gan (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2020-06-15T17:00:00.000Z · Bnei Sakhnin 3-1 Hapoel Ramat Gan (Liga Leumit)
- 2020-02-14T13:00:00.000Z · Bnei Sakhnin 5-1 Hapoel Ramat Gan (Liga Leumit)
- 2019-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · Bnei Sakhnin 2-0 Hapoel Ramat Gan (Liga Leumit)
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 20 |
| 2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Maccabi Haifa | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Bnei Sakhnin | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Maccabi Netanya | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Hapoel Haifa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Hapoel Katamon | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 13 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.