Doha Stadium · Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
Bnei Sakhnin vs Ironi Tiberias Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Bnei Sakhnin and 1.23 for Ironi Tiberias, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Bnei Sakhnin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.6% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bnei Sakhnin home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ironi Tiberias away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–08.6%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Bnei Sakhnin
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Ramat Gan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Haifa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Beitar Jerusalem · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Netanya · 0-0 (D)
Ironi Tiberias
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Netanya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Haifa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Katamon · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T17:30:00.000Z · Bnei Sakhnin 1-2 Ironi Tiberias (Toto Cup Ligat Al)
- 2026-04-18T17:15:00.000Z · Bnei Sakhnin 0-0 Ironi Tiberias (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2026-01-24T16:30:00.000Z · Bnei Sakhnin 1-1 Ironi Tiberias (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2025-10-18T16:15:00.000Z · Bnei Sakhnin 2-0 Ironi Tiberias (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2025-07-27T16:45:00.000Z · Bnei Sakhnin 1-1 Ironi Tiberias (Toto Cup Ligat Al)
- 2025-03-29T17:00:00.000Z · Bnei Sakhnin 2-1 Ironi Tiberias (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2025-01-04T16:00:00.000Z · Bnei Sakhnin 0-0 Ironi Tiberias (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2024-09-21T16:30:00.000Z · Bnei Sakhnin 0-1 Ironi Tiberias (Ligat Ha'al)
- 2024-08-11T17:00:00.000Z · Bnei Sakhnin 2-1 Ironi Tiberias (Toto Cup Ligat Al)
- 2021-12-17T11:00:00.000Z · Bnei Sakhnin 3-0 Ironi Tiberias (State Cup)
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 20 |
| 2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Maccabi Haifa | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Bnei Sakhnin | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Maccabi Netanya | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Hapoel Haifa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Hapoel Katamon | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 13 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.