Doha Stadium · Referee I. Frid · Analysis updated 15:13 UTC
Bnei Sakhnin vs Maccabi Petah Tikva Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Bnei Sakhnin and 0.96 for Maccabi Petah Tikva, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives Bnei Sakhnin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bnei Sakhnin win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.41 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bnei Sakhnin home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maccabi Petah Tikva away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bnei Sakhnin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 27% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Bnei Sakhnin and 0.96 for Maccabi Petah Tikva, a combined 2.36 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–19.0%
Recent form
Bnei Sakhnin
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Ramat Gan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Haifa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Beitar Jerusalem · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Netanya · 0-0 (D)
Maccabi Petah Tikva
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Ramat Gan · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Haifa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Haifa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Katamon · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Beitar Jerusalem · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 20 |
| 2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Maccabi Haifa | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Bnei Sakhnin | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Maccabi Netanya | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Hapoel Haifa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Hapoel Katamon | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 13 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bnei Sakhnin win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.