· Analysis updated 22:40 UTC
Bnei Yehuda vs Maccabi Herzliya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Bnei Yehuda and 1.50 for Maccabi Herzliya, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Bnei Yehuda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bnei Yehuda win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bnei Yehuda home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Maccabi Herzliya away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 3–17.2%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–26.4%
- 2–05.7%
Recent form
Bnei Yehuda
- 2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dimona · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kafr Qasim · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Kfar Saba · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Herzliya · 1-1 (D)
Maccabi Herzliya
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kiryat Yam SC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Yehuda · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kafr Qasim · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Kfar Saba · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-25T16:00:00.000Z · Bnei Yehuda 1-1 Maccabi Herzliya (Liga Leumit)
- 2026-04-17T12:00:00.000Z · Bnei Yehuda 1-0 Maccabi Herzliya (Liga Leumit)
- 2026-01-13T17:00:00.000Z · Bnei Yehuda 0-0 Maccabi Herzliya (State Cup)
- 2025-12-15T17:00:00.000Z · Bnei Yehuda 2-3 Maccabi Herzliya (Liga Leumit)
- 2025-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · Bnei Yehuda 3-2 Maccabi Herzliya (Liga Leumit)
- 2025-01-10T13:00:00.000Z · Bnei Yehuda 2-3 Maccabi Herzliya (Liga Leumit)
- 2024-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · Bnei Yehuda 3-1 Maccabi Herzliya (Liga Leumit)
- 2024-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · Bnei Yehuda 2-2 Maccabi Herzliya (Liga Leumit)
- 2024-02-09T13:00:00.000Z · Bnei Yehuda 1-3 Maccabi Herzliya (Liga Leumit)
- 2023-09-28T16:30:00.000Z · Bnei Yehuda 3-0 Maccabi Herzliya (Liga Leumit)
Liga Leumit table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashdod | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Bnei Yehuda | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 3 | Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Hapoel Ra'anana | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 19 |
| 6 | Kiryat Yam SC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Hapoel Afula | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Maccabi Bnei Raina | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 9 | Kafr Qasim | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Hapoel Kfar Saba | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 11 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 | Ironi Modi'in | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 14 | Maccabi Herzliya | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Hapoel Acre | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -28 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bnei Yehuda win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.