Boavista U20 vs Botafogo U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Boavista U20 and 1.82 for Botafogo U20, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Botafogo U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Botafogo U20 win

48.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.82

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Boavista U20 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Botafogo U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 29% / 23% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Boavista U20 and 1.82 for Botafogo U20, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Boavista U20 win29%

Draw23%

Botafogo U20 win49%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.3%
1–29.4%
0–17.6%
2–17.0%
0–26.9%

Recent form

Boavista U20

2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sampaio Correa FE U20 · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nova Iguaçu U20 · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa RJ U20 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasco da Gama U20 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Maricá U20 · 2-2 (D)

Botafogo U20

2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo U20 · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense U20 · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estrela De Marco U20 · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Correa FE U20 · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Volta Redonda U20 · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Carioca U20 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Fluminense U20	11	9	2	0	22	29
2	Vasco da Gama U20	11	9	1	1	18	28
3	Flamengo U20	11	9	0	2	16	27
4	Botafogo U20	11	5	2	4	3	17
5	Bangu U20	11	4	3	4	1	15
6	Sampaio Correa FE U20	11	4	3	4	-8	15
7	Madureira U20	11	1	8	2	-3	11
8	Nova Iguaçu U20	11	2	4	5	-7	10
9	Boavista U20	11	2	3	6	-9	9
10	Maricá U20	11	2	2	7	-10	8
11	Volta Redonda U20	11	2	2	7	-11	8
12	Portuguesa RJ U20	11	1	2	8	-12	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Botafogo U20 win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.