· Analysis updated 07:16 UTC
Boca Juniors Res. vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Boca Juniors Res. and 0.92 for Belgrano Córdoba Res., a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Boca Juniors Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Boca Juniors Res. win
53.7% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Belgrano Córdoba Res. away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boca Juniors Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 25% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Boca Juniors Res. and 0.92 for Belgrano Córdoba Res., a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.9%
Recent form
Boca Juniors Res.
Belgrano Córdoba Res.
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colón Res. · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Lanús Res. · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Newell's Old Boys Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Defensa y Justicia Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Boca Juniors Res. win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.