Alberto J. Armando · Referee Sebastian Zunino · Analysis updated 23:01 UTC
Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Boca Juniors and 0.56 for Defensa Y Justicia, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Boca Juniors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Boca Juniors win
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 0.56
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Boca Juniors home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Defensa Y Justicia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.1%
- 2–015.3%
- 1–19.6%
- 0–09.5%
- 3–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.70 (model 64.3% vs market 54.7%, edge +9.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.70 | 54.7% | 64.3% | 1.56 | +9.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.08 | 87.9% | 89.0% | 1.12 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.36 | 66.9% | 67.2% | 1.49 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 21.7% | 21.8% | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.88 | 33.0% | 32.8% | 3.05 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 8.00 | 11.4% | 11.0% | 9.09 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 79.1% | 78.2% | 1.28 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.05 | 45.3% | 35.7% | 2.80 | -9.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Boca Juniors
- 2026-11-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs River Plate · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Cordoba · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-1 (L)
Defensa Y Justicia
- 2026-11-02T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Instituto Cordoba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T00:45:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T17:45:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-23T23:00:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 4-0 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 1-2 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-03-16T21:15:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 4-0 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-07-21T23:00:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 2-2 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-02-10T22:15:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 0-0 Defensa Y Justicia (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-09-15T21:45:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 0-1 Defensa Y Justicia (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-03-07T00:00:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 0-0 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-08-21T23:30:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 1-0 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-05-11T00:30:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 2-0 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-09-15T00:00:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 0-0 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Boca Juniors win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.