Boca Juniors vs Independiente Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Boca Juniors and 0.98 for Independiente, a combined total of 1.86. That distribution gives Independiente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws roughly 63% of the time.

Model pick

Independiente or Draw

69.0% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

0.88 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Boca Juniors win31%

Draw32%

Independiente win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals55%

Over 2.5 goals29%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

0–015.6%
0–115.3%
1–013.7%
1–113.4%
0–27.5%

Why the model likes this

Boca Juniors home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 31% / 32% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Boca Juniors and 0.98 for Independiente, a combined 1.86 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 29% and both teams to score at 37%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.

Recent form

Boca Juniors

2026-08-16T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-11T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Recoleta · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-08T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Velez Sarsfield · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-05T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes L.P. · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Newells Old Boys · 2-2 (D)

Independiente

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Velez Sarsfield	4	3	1	0	4	10
2	Instituto Cordoba	4	3	0	1	2	9
3	Newells Old Boys	5	2	1	2	1	7
4	Defensa Y Justicia	4	2	1	1	-1	7
5	Estudiantes L.P.	5	2	0	3	2	6
6	Lanus	4	2	0	2	2	6
7	Deportivo Riestra	5	2	0	3	1	6
8	Independiente	4	2	0	2	1	6
9	Gimnasia M.	4	2	0	2	1	6
10	Central Cordoba de Santiago	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Boca Juniors	5	1	3	1	-2	6
12	San Lorenzo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Platense	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Union Santa Fe	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Talleres Cordoba	4	1	0	3	-2	3
1	Argentinos JRS	4	4	0	0	6	12
2	Belgrano Cordoba	5	3	1	1	4	10
3	Barracas Central	4	3	0	1	1	9
4	Gimnasia L.P.	5	3	0	2	-1	9
5	Tigre	5	2	2	1	2	8
6	Huracan	4	2	1	1	2	7
7	Rosario Central	4	2	1	1	1	7
8	Independ. Rivadavia	5	2	1	2	-1	7
9	Banfield	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Sarmiento Junin	4	2	0	2	0	6
11	Atletico Tucuman	4	1	2	1	1	5
12	Racing Club	5	1	1	3	-3	4
13	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Aldosivi	5	0	2	3	-3	2
15	River Plate	4	0	0	4	-4	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.