Estadio Alberto J. Armando · Referee P. Dovalo · Analysis updated 14:17 UTC
Boca Juniors vs Lanus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Boca Juniors and 1.00 for Lanus, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Boca Juniors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Boca Juniors home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lanus away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boca Juniors to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 29% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Boca Juniors and 1.00 for Lanus, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–08.2%
Recent form
Boca Juniors
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:45:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 3-1 (W)
Lanus
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Velez Sarsfield · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Newells Old Boys · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-22T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes L.P. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa Y Justicia · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.