Boca Juniors vs River Plate Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Boca Juniors and 1.08 for River Plate, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Boca Juniors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

71.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Boca Juniors home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
River Plate away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Boca Juniors win44%

Draw27%

River Plate win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–011.8%
0–19.0%
2–18.9%
0–08.4%

Recent form

Boca Juniors

2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T17:45:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-16T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 3-1 (W)

River Plate

2026-10-14T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento Junin · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracan · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Tucuman · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Independ. Rivadavia · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-19T20:00:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 1-0 River Plate (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2025-11-09T19:30:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 2-0 River Plate (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2025-04-27T18:30:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 1-2 River Plate (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2024-09-21T19:00:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 0-1 River Plate (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2024-04-21T18:30:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 3-2 River Plate (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
2024-02-25T20:00:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 1-1 River Plate (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
2023-10-01T17:00:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 0-2 River Plate (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
2023-05-07T20:30:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 0-1 River Plate (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2022-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 1-0 River Plate (Liga Profesional Argentina)

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Instituto Cordoba	12	8	2	2	9	26
2	Defensa Y Justicia	12	7	3	2	7	24
3	Boca Juniors	12	5	6	1	6	21
4	Velez Sarsfield	12	5	6	1	4	21
5	Lanus	12	6	2	4	6	20
6	Gimnasia M.	12	6	2	4	3	20
7	Independiente	12	5	3	4	-1	18
8	Newells Old Boys	12	4	5	3	2	17
9	Estudiantes L.P.	12	4	2	6	2	14
10	San Lorenzo	12	4	2	6	-6	14
11	Union Santa Fe	12	4	1	7	-4	13
12	Deportivo Riestra	12	2	5	5	-3	11
13	Platense	12	2	5	5	-6	11
14	Central Cordoba de Santiago	12	2	4	6	-6	10
15	Talleres Cordoba	12	2	3	7	-7	9
1	Rosario Central	12	6	4	2	8	22
2	Belgrano Cordoba	12	6	4	2	7	22
3	Argentinos JRS	12	6	4	2	5	22
4	Gimnasia L.P.	13	6	4	3	1	22
5	Sarmiento Junin	12	6	2	4	3	20
6	Huracan	13	5	4	4	0	19
7	Barracas Central	12	5	3	4	1	18
8	Independ. Rivadavia	12	5	3	4	-4	18
9	River Plate	12	5	2	5	2	17
10	Atletico Tucuman	12	3	5	4	0	14
11	Banfield	12	3	4	5	-4	13
12	Tigre	12	3	3	6	-2	12
13	Racing Club	12	3	2	7	-6	11
14	Aldosivi	12	2	2	8	-7	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	12	1	3	8	-10	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.