Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Boca Juniors and 0.43 for San Lorenzo, a combined total of 1.05. That distribution gives Boca Juniors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 45%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 9% for over 2.5 goals and 16% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 35%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

79.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.63 – 0.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Boca Juniors home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
San Lorenzo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 34% / 45% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Boca Juniors and 0.43 for San Lorenzo, a combined 1.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Boca Juniors win34%

Draw45%

San Lorenzo win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

55%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals28%

Over 2.5 goals9%

Over 3.5 goals2%

Both teams to score16%

Correct score

0–035.0%
1–021.9%
0–114.9%
1–19.3%
2–06.8%

Recent form

Boca Juniors

2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-21T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-17T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Cordoba · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-14T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-09T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 2-2 (D)

San Lorenzo

2026-10-24T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Newells Old Boys · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes L.P. · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Riestra · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Defensa Y Justicia · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Instituto Cordoba	13	9	2	2	10	29
2	Boca Juniors	14	7	6	1	8	27
3	Defensa Y Justicia	14	8	3	3	7	27
4	Lanus	14	7	3	4	7	24
5	Velez Sarsfield	13	6	6	1	5	24
6	Newells Old Boys	14	5	6	3	3	21
7	Gimnasia M.	14	6	2	6	1	20
8	Independiente	14	5	4	5	-2	19
9	San Lorenzo	14	5	3	6	-5	18
10	Estudiantes L.P.	13	4	2	7	1	14
11	Union Santa Fe	13	4	2	7	-4	14
12	Platense	14	3	5	6	-6	14
13	Deportivo Riestra	13	2	6	5	-3	12
14	Central Cordoba de Santiago	13	2	4	7	-7	10
15	Talleres Cordoba	14	2	3	9	-9	9
1	Rosario Central	14	8	4	2	11	28
2	Argentinos JRS	13	7	4	2	6	25
3	Gimnasia L.P.	14	7	4	3	3	25
4	River Plate	14	7	2	5	6	23
5	Belgrano Cordoba	14	6	4	4	3	22
6	Sarmiento Junin	14	6	3	5	1	21
7	Barracas Central	13	5	4	4	1	19
8	Huracan	14	5	4	5	-2	19
9	Independ. Rivadavia	13	5	4	4	-4	19
10	Atletico Tucuman	14	4	5	5	0	17
11	Banfield	14	3	5	6	-5	14
12	Tigre	14	3	4	7	-3	13
13	Racing Club	14	3	3	8	-7	12
14	Aldosivi	14	3	2	9	-7	11
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	13	2	3	8	-9	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 79.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 16% and over 2.5 goals at 9%.

A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.