Estadio Alberto J. Armando · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Boca Juniors vs Talleres Cordoba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Boca Juniors and 0.67 for Talleres Cordoba, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Boca Juniors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Boca Juniors win
56.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.67
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Boca Juniors home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Talleres Cordoba away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.2%
- 2–012.8%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.70 (model 62.3% vs market 54.7%, edge +7.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.70 | 54.7% | 62.3% | 1.61 | +7.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.9% | 73.6% | 1.36 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.3% | 26.4% | 3.79 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 83.1% | 83.2% | 1.20 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 5.50 | 16.8% | 16.8% | 5.95 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.62 | 56.9% | 56.8% | 1.76 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.15 | 44.1% | 43.2% | 2.31 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.05 | 45.3% | 37.7% | 2.65 | -7.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Boca Juniors
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:45:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 3-1 (W)
Talleres Cordoba
- 2026-10-12T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Belgrano Cordoba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-02T23:30:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 1-0 Talleres Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-11-23T23:00:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 2-0 Talleres Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 1-1 Talleres Cordoba (Copa Argentina)
- 2024-05-25T23:00:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 0-0 Talleres Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-01-21T00:30:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 2-1 Talleres Cordoba (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-10-16T00:10:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 1-1 Talleres Cordoba (Copa Argentina)
- 2023-02-12T00:30:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 1-2 Talleres Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-07-16T23:30:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 1-0 Talleres Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-12-09T00:10:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 0-0 Talleres Cordoba (Copa Argentina)
- 2021-08-01T18:45:00.000Z · Boca Juniors 0-0 Talleres Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Boca Juniors win, at 56.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.