Estadio Alberto J. Armando · Referee S. Martinez · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Boca Juniors and 0.69 for Union Santa Fe, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Boca Juniors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Boca Juniors win
63.1% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Boca Juniors home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Union Santa Fe away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boca Juniors to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 23% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Boca Juniors and 0.69 for Union Santa Fe, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.2%
- 2–013.4%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.70 (model 58.7% vs market 54.7%, edge +4.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.70 | 54.7% | 58.7% | 1.70 | +4.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 85.0% | 85.9% | 1.16 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 6.50 | 14.0% | 14.2% | 7.04 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.8% | 22.8% | 4.39 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.3% | 77.3% | 1.29 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.44 | 63.2% | 63.1% | 1.58 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.50 | 37.7% | 37.0% | 2.70 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.05 | 45.3% | 41.3% | 2.42 | -4.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Boca Juniors
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:45:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 3-1 (W)
Union Santa Fe
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Independiente · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Instituto Cordoba · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-28T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Boca Juniors win, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.