Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Boca Juniors and 0.95 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Boca Juniors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

72.3% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Boca Juniors home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vasco DA Gama away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boca Juniors to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Boca Juniors and 0.95 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Boca Juniors win44%

Draw28%

Vasco DA Gama win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–013.8%
1–113.1%
0–010.8%
0–110.3%
2–08.8%

Recent form

Boca Juniors

2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T17:45:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-16T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 3-1 (W)

Vasco DA Gama

2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

CONMEBOL Sudamericana table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Macara	6	2	4	0	3	10
2	Tigre	6	2	3	1	3	9
3	America de Cali	6	2	3	1	1	9
4	Alianza Atletico	6	0	2	4	-7	2
1	Atletico-MG	6	3	1	2	2	10
2	Cienciano	6	2	2	2	-2	8
3	Juventud	6	1	4	1	3	7
4	Puerto Cabello	6	2	1	3	-3	7
1	Sao Paulo	6	3	3	0	5	12
2	O'Higgins	6	3	1	2	2	10
3	Millonarios	6	2	2	2	0	8
4	Boston River	6	1	0	5	-7	3
1	Deportivo Recoleta	6	1	5	0	1	8
2	Santos	6	1	4	1	2	7
3	San Lorenzo	6	1	4	1	1	7
4	Deportivo Cuenca	6	1	3	2	-4	6
1	Botafogo	6	5	1	0	10	16
2	Caracas FC	6	2	3	1	0	9
3	Racing Club	6	2	2	2	2	8
4	Independiente	6	0	0	6	-12	0
1	Atletico Torque	6	4	1	1	6	13
2	Gremio	6	3	2	1	5	11
3	Deportivo Riestra	6	1	2	3	-6	5
4	Palestino	6	0	3	3	-5	3
1	Olimpia	6	4	1	1	4	13
2	Vasco DA Gama	6	3	1	2	4	10
3	A. Italiano	6	2	1	3	-2	7
4	Barracas Central	6	0	3	3	-6	3
1	River Plate	6	4	2	0	6	14
2	RB Bragantino	6	3	1	2	7	10
3	Carabobo FC	6	3	0	3	1	9
4	Blooming	6	0	1	5	-14	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.