Estadio Leoncio Benitez · Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Boca Unidos vs Bartolomé Mitre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Boca Unidos and 1.16 for Bartolomé Mitre, a combined total of 1.91. That distribution gives Bartolomé Mitre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bartolomé Mitre win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Boca Unidos home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bartolomé Mitre away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bartolomé Mitre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 24% / 31% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Boca Unidos and 1.16 for Bartolomé Mitre, a combined 1.91 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.2%
- 0–014.8%
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–210.0%
Recent form
Boca Unidos
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Bartolomé Mitre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bartolomé Mitre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Vilelas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs El Linqueño · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Concepción · 1-0 (W)
Bartolomé Mitre
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Belgrano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Douglas Haig · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bartolomé Mitre win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.